You Bet To Win
Yes, I know it’s too early to be making jokes like this, get over it. Now lets talk about the Preakness.
Typically a horse needs at least a month to recover from it’s last race. The Kentucky Derby was 2 weeks ago which means that Big Brown and Gayego who raced in the derby have that much more of a challenge because the other eleven horses are well rested and ready to run.
For Big Brown, it won’t be a problem Gayego is dead in the water.
Unlike the derby the Preakness is about speed. It’s a shorter race than the derby so you want a horse that can break early and get out in front of the pack. In this race Big Brown is the superior horse and will likely win, but it’s a bad bet.
Big Brown is currently paying 2:5 meaning that for every dollar you bet on Brown you get 40 cents. In horse racing it’s nice to pick the winning horse, but you also want to win money. And when you have a horse like Big Brown who will likely win and at the same time not pay any money, you have to start examining the long shots. The long shots might not win the race, but if they finish in the money, meaning second or third place, then their high odds will make betting on the race worth while.
For this reason I like BehindattheBar and Icabad Crane. Behindatthebar is not the fastest horse in the field but he’s dependable. He ran 5 races and only once didn’t finish in the money. Icabad Crane, I like for the opposite reason he’s a fast horse with a lot of closing speed. He’s the dark horse amongst the group, but he’s never been out of the money and he knows the track because he just won a race there in April.
So in terms of betting I like a trifecta box with 3,5,7 — It’s a long shot, but you never know.
